NEW DELHI, Nov 2: Following the warmest October since 1901, India is expected to experience above-average temperatures in November, as per the India Meteorological Department (IMD). October 2024 recorded an average temperature of 26.92 degrees Celsius, surpassing the normal by 1.23 degrees Celsius, and the IMD now predicts continued warm weather, with little sign of winter setting in soon.

During a press conference on Friday, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra explained that the unusual warmth was due to a lack of western disturbances and the presence of easterly winds linked to active low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal. This has prevented the typical northwesterly winds from bringing cooler air to northern India, thereby maintaining higher-than-average temperatures.

The October mean temperature, recorded at 26.92 degrees Celsius, broke historical records, while the minimum temperature stood at 21.85 degrees Celsius, above the normal of 20.01 degrees Celsius.

Mohapatra highlighted that the absence of northwesterly winds has kept temperatures high, particularly in north India, where they are expected to remain 2-5 degrees Celsius above normal for at least the next two weeks. A gradual decrease towards normal temperatures may occur later in the month.

The IMD does not consider November a winter month, with winter typically beginning in December and peaking in January and February. The delay in cooler weather could be partly due to neutral El Nino conditions in the Pacific, affecting weather patterns. However, IMD’s probability forecast suggests that La Nina conditions may develop by December, potentially bringing cooler weather.

“ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) conditions are slowing shifting towards a negative phase, and La Nina may set in by December,” Mohapatra added, acknowledging the challenges weather agencies have faced with El Nino predictions this year.