Guwahati, October 2: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a warmer-than-usual October for Northeast India, coupled with below-normal rainfall in several pockets of the region. While most of the country is expected to receive normal to above-normal showers during the post-monsoon season (October–December), the Northeast stands out as a zone of concern.

According to the IMD’s long-range outlook, the 2025 southwest monsoon (June–September) delivered 108% of the long-period average (LPA), making it the fifth-highest seasonal rainfall since 2001. However, the distribution has been uneven, with East and Northeast India recording just 80% of its LPA—1089.9 mm of rainfall—marking the second-lowest since 1901.

The rainfall shortfall is being felt sharply in Meghalaya’s Sohra (Cherrapunji), once known as the “wettest place on Earth.” The hill station has registered only 6,682.7 mm of rain between January 1 and September 17, a nearly 40% deficit from its annual normal of 11,070 mm.

Meteorologists attribute the weather shift to developing La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean and a weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), both of which are expected to influence India’s climate patterns in the coming months.

Adding to the challenge, IMD’s temperature outlook suggests above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures across the Northeast in October, positioning the region as one of India’s warming hotspots.

Experts have warned that the rainfall deficit and rising heat could significantly affect agriculture, particularly tea plantations, paddy fields, and horticultural crops in Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, and Nagaland. Reduced soil moisture, coupled with higher temperatures, is likely to hit both yield and quality in tea-growing belts.

The IMD has urged state governments and local agencies to prepare early and utilize its impact-based forecasts and risk warnings to reduce risks of crop stress, water shortages, and health-related challenges in the weeks ahead.